Melbourne Ice @ Melbourne Mustangs: AIHL Win Probability

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📅 Fri 15 May, 2026 · 📍 OBrien Icehouse Melbourne

Melbourne Ice

FINAL

Melbourne Mustangs

Strong Defence Top Ranked Attack

Upset, Melbourne Mustangs were favoured 60%

⚠ Missing From Roster Regulars from each team's recent games who didn't dress today, including suspensions, as detected by comparing game-day rosters. Players who left the club in the past three weeks are listed too.

Melbourne Ice · 2 missing

Melbourne Mustangs · 2 missing

Melbourne Ice

#6 Nathan Cachia DRotation player

6 pts, 144th in the league

Missing this game

Played 5 of last 5 games

#88 Brandon LucchesiRotation player

5 pts, 147th in the league

Missing this game

Played 4 of last 5 games

Melbourne Mustangs

#7 Ryne Bodger DRotation player

9 pts, 125th in the league

Missing this game

Played 3 of last 5 games

#8 Adam Harper FRotation playerSuspended

0 pts, 258th in the league

Suspended 1 game (Checking from Behind) · Missing this game

Played 3 of last 5 games

Match Centre

Scoring by period

Team	1	2	3	T
Melbourne Ice	4	3	0	7
Melbourne Mustangs	1	2	1	4

Shots on goal by period

Team	1	2	3	T
Melbourne Ice	11	16	6	33
Melbourne Mustangs	11	12	14	37

Play by play

Team	Description	Time
1st Period
	Penalty #11 Jed Lake Delay Of Game (2:00)	17:34
	Penalty #92 Colin McIntosh Tripping (2:00)	16:55
	Goal #2 Lliam Webster Unassisted Score: 1–0	15:40
	Penalty #59 Matt Dorsey High-sticking (2:00)	14:42
	Goal (Power Play) #11 Jed Lake Assists: Mackenzie Caruana, Joakim Erdugan Score: 2–0	13:42
	Goal #15 Brody Lindal Assists: Philippe Caron, Lachlan Sucher Score: 2–1	11:56
	Goal #91 Jamie Bourke Assists: Jed Lake, Joakim Erdugan Score: 3–1	8:16
	Penalty #88 Robin Vortanov Roughing (2:00)	7:07
	Penalty #18 Kolton Shindle Unsportsmanlike conduct (2:00)	7:07
	Penalty #88 Robin Vortanov Holding (2:00)	7:07
	Goal #11 Jed Lake Assists: Joakim Erdugan, Jamie Bourke Score: 4–1	3:03
2nd Period
	Goal #15 Brody Lindal Assists: Joey Hughes, Philippe Caron Score: 4–2	17:07
	Penalty #20 Hayden Dawes Roughing (2:00)	16:24
	Penalty #20 Hayden Dawes Boarding (5:00)	16:24
	Goal (Power Play) #10 Joakim Erdugan Assists: Jamie Bourke Score: 5–2	13:53
	Goal (Power Play) #11 Jed Lake Assists: Mackenzie Caruana, Joakim Erdugan Score: 6–2	13:00
	Penalty #10 Joakim Erdugan Elbowing (2:00)	8:08
	Goal (Shorthanded) #18 Kolton Shindle Assists: Mackenzie Caruana Score: 7–2	6:41
	Goal #59 Matt Dorsey Assists: Philippe Caron Score: 7–3	4:21
	Penalty #21 Joey Hughes Delay Of Game (2:00)	4:10
	Penalty #4 Michael McMahon Roughing (2:00)	1:48
	Penalty #91 Jamie Bourke Roughing (2:00)	1:48
	Penalty #59 Matt Dorsey Roughing (2:00)	1:48
	Penalty #21 Joey Hughes Game Misconduct: Fighting (20:00)	1:48
	Penalty #21 Joey Hughes Game Misconduct: Abuse of Official (20:00)	1:48
	Penalty #21 Joey Hughes Fighting (5:00)	1:48
	Penalty #2 Lliam Webster Roughing (2:00)	0:18
	Penalty #20 Hayden Dawes Roughing (2:00)	0:18
	Penalty #9 Jaxson Lane Roughing (2:00)	0:02
	Penalty #9 Mackenzie Caruana Roughing (2:00)	0:02
3rd Period
	Penalty #23 Lachlan Cincotta Roughing (2:00)	11:27
	Penalty #68 lachlan hodge Roughing (2:00)	11:27
	Penalty #86 Raymond Khalil Roughing (2:00)	11:27
	Penalty #59 Matt Dorsey Roughing (2:00)	11:27
	Penalty #59 Matt Dorsey Cross-checking (2:00)	11:27
	Penalty #24 Philippe Caron Roughing (2:00)	11:27
	Penalty #16 Dean Klomp Roughing (2:00)	11:27
	Penalty #14 Nicholas Ponomarev Tripping (2:00)	10:25
	Penalty #91 Jamie Bourke Slashing (2:00)	9:40
	Penalty #2 Lliam Webster Unsportsmanlike conduct (10:00)	5:41
	Penalty #88 Robin Vortanov Unsportsmanlike conduct (10:00)	5:41
	Goal (Shorthanded) #59 Matt Dorsey Assists: Philippe Caron, Dean Klomp Score: 7–4	4:40

Full box score

Melbourne Ice

#	Skater	GoalsG	AssistsA	PointsPTS	Penalty MinsPIM
10	Joakim Erdugan	1	4	5	2
11	Jed Lake	3	1	4	2
91	Jamie Bourke	1	2	3	4
9	Mackenzie Caruana	0	3	3	2
2	Lliam Webster	1	0	1	12
18	Kolton Shindle	1	0	1	2
3	Todd Graham	0	0	0	0
4	Michael McMahon	0	0	0	2
17	Tobie Gilchrist	0	0	0	0
19	Corey Stringer	0	0	0	0
23	Lachlan Cincotta	0	0	0	2
46	Alexei Rayzman	0	0	0	0
68	lachlan hodge	0	0	0	2
71	Tristan Fraser	0	0	0	0
81	Austin McKenzie	0	0	0	0
86	Raymond Khalil	0	0	0	2
94	Matthew Last	0	0	0	0

Goaltending

#	Goalie	Shots AgainstSA	Goals AgainstGA	SavesSV	Save %SV%	GSAAGSAA	Penalty MinsPIM
74	Thomas Forrest ST	37	4	33	.892	+0.3	0
69	Mackenzie Hill	-	-	0	-	–	0

Melbourne Mustangs

#	Skater	GoalsG	AssistsA	PointsPTS	Penalty MinsPIM
24	Philippe Caron	0	4	4	2
15	Brody Lindal	2	0	2	0
59	Matt Dorsey	2	0	2	8
12	Lachlan Sucher	0	1	1	0
16	Dean Klomp	0	1	1	2
21	Joey Hughes	0	1	1	47
9	Jaxson Lane	0	0	0	2
14	Nicholas Ponomarev	0	0	0	2
17	Scott Timmins	0	0	0	0
19	Jordan Warren	0	0	0	0
20	Hayden Dawes	0	0	0	9
22	Mike Giorgi	0	0	0	0
41	Callum Burns	0	0	0	0
44	Artem Astafiev	0	0	0	0
51	Sean Jones	0	0	0	0
52	Rowan Barrett	0	0	0	0
67	Maksim Astafiyev	0	0	0	0
86	Davide Gaeta	0	0	0	0
88	Robin Vortanov	0	0	0	14
92	Colin McIntosh	0	0	0	2

Goaltending

#	Goalie	Shots AgainstSA	Goals AgainstGA	SavesSV	Save %SV%	GSAAGSAA	Penalty MinsPIM
31	Noah Giesbrecht ST	33	7	26	.788	−3.1	0
30	Sebastian Woodlands	-	-	0	-	–	0

Head-to-head this season

Date	Away	Score	Home
17 July	Melbourne Ice	2–6	Melbourne Mustangs
29 May	Melbourne Mustangs	6–3	Melbourne Ice
15 May	Melbourne Ice	7–4	Melbourne Mustangs
1 May	Melbourne Mustangs	5–4 /SO	Melbourne Ice