Brisbane Lightning @ Sydney Bears: AIHL Win Probability

← Home

📅 Sat 18 Apr, 2026 · 📍 Macquarie Ice Rink, Sydney

Brisbane Lightning

Strong Attack

FINAL

Sydney Bears

Predicted correctly, Sydney Bears were favoured 53%

⚠ Missing From Roster Regulars from each team's recent games who didn't dress today, including suspensions, as detected by comparing game-day rosters. Players who left the club in the past three weeks are listed too.

Brisbane Lightning · 2 recently departed

Brisbane Lightning

Braden CostaDeparted

Braden Costa moved from Brisbane Lightning to Sydney Ice Dogs

Reported 17 Apr 2026

Marcus HosenDeparted

Marcus Hosen moved from Brisbane Lightning to Sydney Ice Dogs

Reported 17 Apr 2026

Match Centre

Scoring by period

Team	1	2	3	T
Brisbane Lightning	0	1	3	4
Sydney Bears	1	3	2	6

Shots on goal by period

Team	1	2	3	T
Brisbane Lightning	5	14	8	27
Sydney Bears	8	11	11	30

Play by play

Team	Description	Time
1st Period
	Penalty #29 Logan brodie Holding (2:00)	18:32
	Penalty #28 Bryce Hodges Hooking (2:00)	18:32
	Goal #54 Lucas Herrmann Assists: Alexander Wardlaw, Tomas Landa Score: 0–1	12:56
	Penalty #97 Tyerell Clare Charging (2:00)	10:50
	Penalty #15 Thomas Kiliwnik Cross-checking (2:00)	6:38
	Penalty #9 Gustav Remler-Jensen Boarding (2:00)	5:36
	Penalty #17 Luka Ouimette Hooking (2:00)	0:50
2nd Period
	Goal (Power Play) #54 Lucas Herrmann Assists: Gustav Remler-Jensen, Ryan Annesley Score: 0–2	19:08
	Penalty #26 Neil Pretorius Interference (2:00)	17:33
	Goal (Power Play) #24 Tomas Landa Assists: Lucas Herrmann, Alexander Gauthier Score: 0–3	17:16
	Penalty #29 Logan brodie Holding (2:00)	15:33
	Penalty #19 Noah Moncrieff Charging (2:00)	9:53
	Goal #47 Jack Mollee Assists: Thomas Kiliwnik, Eric Walker Score: 1–3	4:27
	Penalty #78 Sacha Rapchuk Delay Of Game (2:00)	2:38
	Goal (Power Play) #54 Lucas Herrmann Assists: Alexander Gauthier, Ryan Annesley Score: 1–4	2:27
3rd Period
	Goal #42 Tanner Hopps Assists: Anthony Barnes, Luka Ouimette Score: 2–4	10:40
	Goal #88 Zachery Gumm Assists: Thomas Kiliwnik, Jakob Doornbos Score: 3–4	9:50
	Goal #42 Tanner Hopps Assists: Julian Fodor, Thomas Kiliwnik Score: 4–4	3:42
	Penalty #55 Eric Walker Interference (2:00)	2:41
	Goal (Power Play) #9 Gustav Remler-Jensen Assists: Alexander Gauthier, Tomas Landa Score: 4–5	1:45
	Goal #23 Alexander Wardlaw Unassisted Score: 4–6	0:14

Full box score

Brisbane Lightning

#	Skater	GoalsG	AssistsA	PointsPTS	Penalty MinsPIM
15	Thomas Kiliwnik	0	3	3	2
42	Tanner Hopps	2	0	2	0
47	Jack Mollee	1	0	1	0
88	Zachery Gumm	1	0	1	0
9	Anthony Barnes	0	1	1	0
17	Luka Ouimette	0	1	1	2
55	Eric Walker	0	1	1	2
84	Julian Fodor	0	1	1	0
7	Pat Girouard	0	0	0	0
18	Arum Rapchuk	0	0	0	0
19	Jackson Staneke	0	0	0	0
24	Aaron Wanat	0	0	0	0
26	Neil Pretorius	0	0	0	2
28	Bryce Hodges	0	0	0	2
77	Hunter Boland	0	0	0	0
78	Sacha Rapchuk	0	0	0	2

Goaltending

#	Goalie	Shots AgainstSA	Goals AgainstGA	SavesSV	Save %SV%	GSAAGSAA	Penalty MinsPIM
70	Dillon Dewar	-	-	0	-	–	0
31	Jakob Doornbos ST	29	5	24	.828	−1.6	0

Sydney Bears

#	Skater	GoalsG	AssistsA	PointsPTS	Penalty MinsPIM
54	Lucas Herrmann	3	1	4	0
24	Tomas Landa	1	2	3	0
12	Alexander Gauthier	0	3	3	0
9	Gustav Remler-Jensen	1	1	2	2
23	Alexander Wardlaw	1	1	2	0
16	Ryan Annesley	0	2	2	0
6	Richard Crowe	0	0	0	0
7	Joseph Braun	0	0	0	0
8	Thomas Moncrieff	0	0	0	0
10	Taegan Rippon	0	0	0	0
18	Kenshin Hayashi	0	0	0	0
19	Noah Moncrieff	0	0	0	2
25	Geoffrey O'Hara	0	0	0	0
29	Logan brodie	0	0	0	4
41	Mac Tutton	0	0	0	0
49	Eugene Ju	0	0	0	0
84	Adrian Esposito	0	0	0	0
88	Tyrone Oxlade	0	0	0	0
92	Bodie Jerome	0	0	0	0
93	Colby Shumak	0	0	0	0
97	Tyerell Clare	0	0	0	2

Goaltending

#	Goalie	Shots AgainstSA	Goals AgainstGA	SavesSV	Save %SV%	GSAAGSAA	Penalty MinsPIM
31	James Downie ST	27	4	23	.852	−0.8	0
28	Anthony Kimlin	-	-	0	-	–	0

Head-to-head this season

Date	Away	Score	Home
28 June	Brisbane Lightning	0–8	Sydney Bears
17 May	Sydney Bears	7–4	Brisbane Lightning
16 May	Sydney Bears	6–5 /OT	Brisbane Lightning
18 Apr	Brisbane Lightning	4–6	Sydney Bears