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Sydney Ice Dogs @ Central Coast Rhinos

Sat 30 May, 2026 · Erina Ice Arena · Final: Sydney Ice Dogs 11–5 Central Coast Rhinos
Elo-modelled average win probability

Sydney Ice Dogs

Elo 1542
WWLLL
48.1%
vs

Central Coast Rhinos

Elo 1521
LWSLL
51.9%

These percentages are a prediction based on each team's Elo rating, a score that goes up after wins and down after losses. You can check how this is calculated below.

How this probability was calculated

Central Coast Rhinos gets a small bonus for playing at home. A big win raises a team's rating more than a close one does, and overtime or shootout wins count for less, since the game was still tied when regular time ended. Ratings update after every game, so each team's recent form is already built into the number you see here.

Central Coast Rhinos Elo rating going in 1521
Sydney Ice Dogs Elo rating going in 1542
Home-ice advantage (applied to Central Coast Rhinos) +35 → 1556
Adjusted rating gap +14 favouring Central Coast Rhinos
Win probability = 1 ÷ (1 + 10−gap÷400)  →  51.9% Central Coast Rhinos · 48.1% Sydney Ice Dogs

Head-to-head this season

DateAwayScoreHome
Sat 18 Jul, 2026 Central Coast Rhinos 5–2 Sydney Ice Dogs
Sat 30 May, 2026 Sydney Ice Dogs 11–5 Central Coast Rhinos
Sun 3 May, 2026 Central Coast Rhinos 6–3 Sydney Ice Dogs

In-Form Players

Sydney Ice Dogs
#Top ForwardsPTSForm (L10)Lg Rank
14 Kale Costa 49 #16
42 Dmitri Kuleshov 31 #33
51 Daniel Chen 28 #37
#Top DefencePTSForm (L10)Lg Rank
94 David D'Agostino 26 #42
97 Kabore Dunn 26 #44
5 Daniel Pataky 8 #119
#GoaliesSV%GP
88 Ryan Burroughs 0.903 22
31 Ryo Murakami 0.871 5
Central Coast Rhinos
#Top ForwardsPTSForm (L10)Lg Rank
83 Danick Bouchard 68 #2
18 Raphael Bastille 60 #5
16 Tyler Kubara 33 #28
#Top DefencePTSForm (L10)Lg Rank
20 Robert Malloy 24 #51
91 Scott Dewar 3 #155
27 Stuart Cole-Clark 2 #186
#GoaliesSV%GP
29 Anand Oberoi 0.884 27
33 Sean Ellison 0.767 7

How Elo ratings work

Elo is a rating system first made for chess, and it works just as well for ranking hockey teams. Every team starts the season with a rating of 1500. After each game, the winner's rating goes up and the loser's rating goes down. The size of the change depends on how surprising the result was. Beating a much stronger team gains more points than beating a weaker one, and losing to a weaker team costs more points than losing to a stronger one.

Here's how AIHL Forecaster calculates its ratings. The home team gets a +35 point bonus before each game, since playing at home is a real advantage in hockey. A win in regular time earns extra points if the margin was large, up to a cap, so a blowout moves the rating more than a one-goal win. Overtime and shootout results only shift the rating a small amount, since both teams were still tied when regular time ended. Ratings are recalculated after every single game, so a team's Elo rating always reflects its most recent form, not just its overall record.