Newcastle Northstars @ Sydney Bears
These percentages are a prediction based on each team's Elo rating, a score that goes up after wins and down after losses. You can check how this is calculated below.
How this probability was calculated
Sydney Bears gets a small bonus for playing at home. A big win raises a team's rating more than a close one does, and overtime or shootout wins count for less, since the game was still tied when regular time ended. Ratings update after every game, so each team's recent form is already built into the number you see here.
What a Win Means
Newcastle Northstars
A win here would keep Newcastle Northstars at 1st, on 56 points. They'd stay inside the top 6. Right now, Newcastle Northstars are given a 100% chance of making the finals. It would put a 6-point buffer between them and second-placed Mustangs, assuming Mustangs's own result doesn't close it.
Sydney Bears
A win here would lift Sydney Bears from 7th to 5th, on 42 points. That's enough to put them inside the top 6 for now. Right now, Sydney Bears are given a 52% chance of making the finals. That depends on Ice Dogs too: only a regulation win from their own game would keep them above Sydney Bears at 42 pts - anything less and the move to 5th holds.
Head-to-head this season
| Date | Away | Score | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 11 Jul, 2026 | Sydney Bears | 3–6 | Newcastle Northstars |
| Sat 6 Jun, 2026 | Sydney Bears | 4–7 | Newcastle Northstars |
| Sun 26 Apr, 2026 | Newcastle Northstars | 3–1 | Sydney Bears |
In-Form Players
| # | Top Forwards | PTS | Form (L10) | Lg Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Evgenii Skachkov | 69 | #1 | |
| 20 | santeri haarala | 67 | #4 | |
| 17 | Francis Drolet | 40 | #22 |
| # | Top Defence | PTS | Form (L10) | Lg Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Akihide Watanabe | 40 | #23 | |
| 77 | Ethan Hawes | 17 | #71 | |
| 10 | Aziz Baazzi | 13 | #90 |
| # | Goalies | SV% | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Matus Trnka | 0.893 | 24 |
| 75 | Matthew Montgomery | 0.000 | 7 |
| # | Top Forwards | PTS | Form (L10) | Lg Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | Lucas Herrmann | 52 | #10 | |
| 9 | Gustav Remler-Jensen | 27 | #40 | |
| 67 | Nick Seitz | 26 | #41 |
| # | Top Defence | PTS | Form (L10) | Lg Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Alexander Gauthier | 17 | #69 | |
| 97 | Tyerell Clare | 14 | #87 | |
| 76 | Kevin Sadovski | 7 | #127 |
| # | Goalies | SV% | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Anthony Kimlin | 0.883 | 19 |
| 60 | Hayden Plimley | 0.890 | 13 |
How Elo ratings work
Elo is a rating system first made for chess, and it works just as well for ranking hockey teams. Every team starts the season with a rating of 1500. After each game, the winner's rating goes up and the loser's rating goes down. The size of the change depends on how surprising the result was. Beating a much stronger team gains more points than beating a weaker one, and losing to a weaker team costs more points than losing to a stronger one.
Here's how AIHL Forecaster calculates its ratings. The home team gets a +35 point bonus before each game, since playing at home is a real advantage in hockey. A win in regular time earns extra points if the margin was large, up to a cap, so a blowout moves the rating more than a one-goal win. Overtime and shootout results only shift the rating a small amount, since both teams were still tied when regular time ended. Ratings are recalculated after every single game, so a team's Elo rating always reflects its most recent form, not just its overall record.