Melbourne Ice @ Canberra Brave
These percentages are a prediction based on each team's Elo rating, a score that goes up after wins and down after losses. You can check how this is calculated below.
How this probability was calculated
Canberra Brave gets a small bonus for playing at home. A big win raises a team's rating more than a close one does, and overtime or shootout wins count for less, since the game was still tied when regular time ended. Ratings update after every game, so each team's recent form is already built into the number you see here.
What a Win Means
Melbourne Ice
A win here would lift Melbourne Ice from 5th to 4th, on 44 points. They'd stay inside the top 6. Right now, Melbourne Ice are given a 92% chance of making the finals. That depends on Thunder too: even a straight loss leaves them level with Melbourne Ice on 44 pts, with points percentage deciding who's actually ahead.
Canberra Brave
A win here would lift Canberra Brave from 3rd to 2nd, on 50 points. They'd stay inside the top 6. It would also move them into bye territory, the top 2. Right now, Canberra Brave are given a 100% chance of making the finals. That depends on Mustangs too: even a straight loss leaves them level with Canberra Brave on 50 pts, with points percentage deciding who's actually ahead.
Head-to-head this season
| Date | Away | Score | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 2 May, 2026 | Canberra Brave | 3–4 | Melbourne Ice |
In-Form Players
| # | Top Forwards | PTS | Form (L10) | Lg Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mackenzie Caruana | 52 | #11 | |
| 18 | Kolton Shindle | 51 | #13 | |
| 10 | Joakim Erdugan | 50 | #15 |
| # | Top Defence | PTS | Form (L10) | Lg Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | Simon Despres | 16 | #76 | |
| 25 | Johnny Aonso | 10 | #100 | |
| 6 | Nathan Cachia | 5 | #138 |
| # | Goalies | SV% | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Tatsunoshin Ishida | 0.885 | 16 |
| 74 | Thomas Forrest | 0.863 | 10 |
| # | Top Forwards | PTS | Form (L10) | Lg Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jake Ratcliffe | 56 | #8 | |
| 15 | Casey Kubara | 49 | #17 | |
| 11 | Peter Bates | 32 | #30 |
| # | Top Defence | PTS | Form (L10) | Lg Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bray Crowder | 36 | #26 | |
| 7 | Bayley Kubara | 17 | #65 | |
| 8 | Cameron Marks | 8 | #116 |
| # | Goalies | SV% | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Alexandre Tetreault | 0.858 | 19 |
| 34 | Joel Hasselman | 0.902 | 11 |
How Elo ratings work
Elo is a rating system first made for chess, and it works just as well for ranking hockey teams. Every team starts the season with a rating of 1500. After each game, the winner's rating goes up and the loser's rating goes down. The size of the change depends on how surprising the result was. Beating a much stronger team gains more points than beating a weaker one, and losing to a weaker team costs more points than losing to a stronger one.
Here's how AIHL Forecaster calculates its ratings. The home team gets a +35 point bonus before each game, since playing at home is a real advantage in hockey. A win in regular time earns extra points if the margin was large, up to a cap, so a blowout moves the rating more than a one-goal win. Overtime and shootout results only shift the rating a small amount, since both teams were still tied when regular time ended. Ratings are recalculated after every single game, so a team's Elo rating always reflects its most recent form, not just its overall record.